A study conducted by the International Centre for Tropical
Agriculture (CIAT) that was released in September 2011 predicted that in 20
years time climate change could result in conditions that could seriously
jeopardize cocoa cultivation in two key growing countries, Ghana
and Ivory Coast,
which account for more than 50% of global production.
Among other things, the study hypothesized that “an expected
annual temperature rise of more than two degrees Celsius by 2050 will leave
many of West Africa’s cocoa-producing areas too hot for
chocolate.” But it warned that as early as 2030, when annual temperatures are
expected to have gone up by one degree Celsius, many of today’s main
cocoa-growing areas could be unsuitable for the crop.
The report then went on to suggest a number of coping
strategies.
At the time of the report’s release, many people found it
somewhat alarmist. Ghana’s
Cocoboard was reported to have downplayed it, saying it was confident it had
things well in hand for a climate change eventuality.
Yet less than six months after the release of the CIAT
report, many of the worrying climate change events which were predicted for
many years hence seem to have already hit some of the key cocoa-growing areas,
especially in Ivory Coast.
While Ghana is celebrating having produced more than a
million tonnes of cocoa in 2011, Ivory Coast’s present cocoa-growing season has
been plagued by late-starting and erratic rains with long in-season dry spells
that are expected to result in a harvest 8% lower than that of 2011.
It could be a downward blip that could be compensated for by
good seasons in coming years> But the signs suggest that it would be prudent
to begin to make preparation for the future with the assumption that this
year’s unusual-for-Ivory Coast climate is a sign of things to come. It may turn
out that the CIAT prediction of a significant climate effect on cocoa harvest
by 2030 was not alarmist, but actually optimistic.
Cocoa is so
important to the economies of Ghana
and Ivory Coast
that there is understandable resistance to contemplating a future in which it
has a much reduced role, especially when there are no obvious cash crop
alternatives to take its place. Besides, it is also tempting to dismiss Ivory
Coast’s poorer than normal season as a
localized event; especially since rain seasons have been largely normal in
cocoa-growing regions of Ghana
and Nigeria.
Yet examples from elsewhere in Africa point to adaptation
needing to be done with even more urgency than even the experts have warned was
necessary.
If the economies of Ghana
and Ivory Coast
are too dependent on cocoa as a cash crop, many countries in eastern and
southern Africa are too reliant on maize as a staple
crop. To an even more alarming extent than cocoa in West Africa,
these regions have failed to heed the yearly signs that maize-growing is
already becoming increasingly unsustainable over an ever-increasing proportion
of their climatological zone. The various strategies currently employed to deal
with this are unlikely to completely bridge the gap between rising maize needs
and declining production.
Alternatives to maize will have to be sought, difficult to
fathom or accept as that reality is for many people in these maize-obsessed regions.
During Malawi, Zambia
and South Africa’s
recent string of maize ‘bumper harvests,’ the very suggestion that a future of
reduced importance for maize may need to be urgently thought about would have
seemed crazy. It probably still does, even as these three countries and several
others contemplate possible maize deficits in the next few months. But ready or
not, that is a reality that all these countries are going to have to face,
perhaps not just ‘soon,’ but now.
Similarly, the reduced Ivorian cocoa harvest is probably a
more realistic base from which to think about the crop’s future in West
Africa than Ghana’s
record harvest in 2011.
All three major West African cocoa-growing countries are
taking steps to replace their aging cocoa bushes with newer, ‘improved’ stocks.
This has long-needed to be done and will address some of the challenges of
declining intrinsic productivity. But like GM maize in the
increasingly-unsuitable parts of eastern and southern Africa,
this may slightly postpone the day of reckoning for the cultivation of these
crops, but not put it off indefinitely.
The problem is these are all approaching realities that no
one wants to hear or think about.
